Under EPT2, PREDICT 2 is focusing efforts on the highest risk locations and interfaces, where animals and people share changing landscapes, and diseases of unknown origin continue to take a significant toll. Using an epizonal approach, PREDICT is targeting surveillance activities at three major pandemic risk pathways that drive viral emergence: land conversion for commercialization, intensification of animal production systems, and animal value chains. (See figure) Going forward at targeted locations, PREDICT 2’s surveillance approach will intensify in scope by investigating biological and human behavioral risk factors, as well as the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other drivers for disease emergence and spread. By standardizing and integrating longitudinal biological, ecological, and behavioral surveillance efforts, PREDICT 2 aims to characterize the whole geographic, ecological, and sociological space, from prespillover conditions that drive viral evolution, through transmission of zoonoses, to circumstances of pathogen amplification and spread. To achieve these goals, PREDICT 2 will characterize risk and sample people, livestock, and wildlife in concert at high-risk interfaces along the disease emergence pathways mentioned above. Primary activities:
- Conducting standardized, longitudinal surveillance of human and animal populations to identify biological and ecological drivers and host-pathogen dynamics at high-risk interfaces within three critical pathways of disease emergence and spread
- Understanding behavioral mechanisms of human-animal contact within high-risk pathways for disease emergence and spread AND identifying potential control points, strategies, and interventions for pilot testing and policy promotion
- Developing an evidence base to promote policies in support of crosssectoral collaborations and actively engaging partners through data sharing, capacity building, surveillance, and outbreak response activities to demonstrate the value of the One Health approach
- Enhancing capacity for surveillance; diagnostics; and improved data collection, synthesis, storage, and sharing platforms to strengthen global surveillance and outbreak response and intelligence systems
PREDICT 2 will improve the understanding of the dynamics of zoonotic virus spillover, evolution, amplification, and spread in order to forecast risk and inform prevention and control measures, facilitating and optimizing policies and practices that reduce disease transmission risk through sound, science-based interventions.